Leicester City’s Road to the Champions League (updated 5/19)

After today’s loss to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, Leicester City’s path to Champions League football next season became more of a minefield. However, it’s a navigable minefield if we get a little help along the way. Here are the scenarios as things stand after Liverpool’s 3-0 win over Burnley:

IF WE WIN ON SUNDAY:

We’re in the Champions League if either Liverpool or Chelsea drop points, or if our goal differential is at least one better than Liverpool’s (this would require, at a minimum, a 6-0 win against Spurs-see below).

Photo by Matt Childs - Pool/Getty Images

This is obviously the best-case scenario. There’s still the potential for heartbreak, but there’s also the chance that we could snatch 3rd place and Liverpool could grab 4th and Chelsea would in the Europa League. After today, I would very much like to see things end that way. #salt

IF WE DRAW ON SUNDAY:

We’re in the Champions League if Liverpool lose their match against Crystal Palace on Sunday. We could also make it if Chelsea lose by three or more against Aston Villa.

Photo by Adrian Dennis - Pool/Getty Images

Chelsea are all but guaranteed a spot in this scenario, although a heavy loss could see them drop below us. A Liverpool loss, however, would see us through in case of a draw.

IF WE LOSE ON SUNDAY:

We’re in if Liverpool lose by five or six more than we do, depending on how many goals we score and how many Liverpool score.

Photo by JOHN SIBLEY/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

We’re well into 5000-1 territory here. Chelsea are in and we need a lot of help. Let’s just beat Spurs.

REMAINING MATCHES:

Leicester City host Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea are away to Aston Villa
Liverpool host Crystal Palace

All matches are played at the same time (4:00 PM BST, 10:00 AM CDT)

TIE-BREAKERS:

I messed this one up before, so let’s get it straight this time. The tie-breakers are:

1. Goal differential-this is almost certainly going to be what settles it, and it is grim reading for Leicester fans. We’re behind both Liverpool and Chelsea in this regard.
2. Goals scored-We’re well ahead of Chelsea here, and level with Liverpool, but it is extremely unlikely that this will come into play.
3. Head-to-head-We win this one against Chelsea and lose to Liverpool. It’s not going to matter, but it’s nice to know.